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After 4 days of vote tallying, the Unbiased Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC) of Nigeria formally declared Bola Tinubu the winner of the nation’s extremely contested presidential election. The declaration just isn’t with out controversy, nonetheless, as a number of opposition events have disputed the legitimacy of the election and promised to problem the leads to court docket. For his half, president-elect Tinubu has appealed for reconciliation together with his rivals and urged all Nigerians to unite behind his administration when he takes workplace in Could.
GeoPoll carried out a survey previous to the election to gauge public sentiment in regards to the state of the nation, folks’s belief within the electoral course of, and their intention to vote. Now that the presidential election is over, GeoPoll carried out a follow-up examine to find out about folks’s voting experiences on election day, in addition to their confidence within the election course of and outcomes.
Findings from the post-election survey are detailed on this submit. To view the total outcomes, filterable by query, state, gender, and age group, scroll all the way down to the Interactive Knowledge Dashboard.
Voting Expertise
Voter turnout in Nigeria has been on a gradual decline since peaking at 69% in 2003. Though 74% of respondents in our examine declare to have voted within the 2023 election, solely 29% of registered voters in Nigeria truly voted on election day – the bottom participation price since Nigeria’s independence.
Of the 26% that didn’t vote, 41% say it was because of “registration/PVC issues.” One other 18% say that they had issues on the polling station.
For people who did vote, most had a “good” or “excellent” voting expertise (61%). Solely 19% had a “poor” or “very poor” expertise.
61% of voters report a “good” or “excellent” voting expertise.
Each the expectation and preliminary stories of late begins at polling stations could have dissuaded some voters. Delays had been blamed on quite a lot of points, together with technical difficulties, late-arriving officers, money shortages that affected transport, and assaults on polling stations. A lot of the voters in our examine report experiencing no less than minor delays (61%), with 21% saying their polling station opened greater than 2 hours delayed.
Whether or not their polling station opened on time or not, most respondents waited in line for no less than 1 hour to vote (60%). Nearly 1 in 3 (32%) waited for 3 hours or extra.
60% waited in line for no less than 1 hour to vote.
Regardless of fears of violence main as much as the elections, voting was largely peaceable exterior of some remoted incidents. These incidents possible contribute to the 4% of respondents that say they felt “very unsafe” at their polling station. Most, nonetheless, report feeling “considerably protected” or “very protected” (81%). Girls report feeling barely much less protected than males.
In our examine carried out per week earlier than the election, most respondents felt “annoyed” with the present scenario in Nigeria. Frustration continues to be the most typical sentiment now that the election is over, however the share dropped from 58% to 45%. The proportion feeling “scared” additionally decreased, whereas these experiencing constructive emotions (hopeful, blessed and pleased) elevated.
Belief within the Electoral Course of Pre- and Submit-Elections
The electoral course of for the 2023 Nigeria Presidential Election has been suffering from controversy since earlier than the primary votes had been solid. Whereas acknowledging technical glitches with its vote tallying platform, the Unbiased Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC) stands by its declaration of Bola Tinubu because the president-elect, and has requested opposition events to take their grievances to court docket.
Because the events put together their authorized challenges and the president-elect prepares his administration, we offered voters a sequence of statements associated to their religion within the electoral course of, and requested whether or not they agree or disagree with every assertion.
Election Outcomes Acceptance, Fraud, and Violence
Respondents’ expectations for a fraud- and violence-free election that may be accepted by all Nigerians far exceeded their precise expertise. The chart beneath exhibits the odds of respondents that “disagreed” or “strongly disagreed” with every of the three statements, each earlier than and after the election.
Opposition party-led protests have dampened respondents’ hope that the outcomes of the 2023 common elections will likely be accepted by all Nigerians. The proportion that “disagree” or “strongly disagree” with that assertion climbed from 24% within the pre-election survey to 64% within the post-election survey.
Disputes over the electoral fee’s dealing with of the vote additionally elevated perceptions of fraud. Those who disagree or strongly disagree that the elections will likely be/had been freed from fraud greater than doubled pre-/post-election, rising from 29% to 67%.
Though election day has been deemed largely peaceable, voters anticipated higher. Whereas solely 33% disagreed or strongly disagreed that the elections could be freed from violence and intimidation earlier than the election, 63% disagree or strongly disagree with that assertion now that the election is over.
Perceptions of INEC’s Efficiency
On election day, delays at polling stations, technical difficulties, and allegations of irregularities raised considerations about INEC’s planning and efficiency. After the election, glitches in INEC’s outcomes viewing platform and delays in asserting the outcomes seem to have amplified these considerations.
In our examine, voters’ categorical vital dissatisfaction with INEC’s efficiency.
Solely 31% of respondents agree or strongly agree that every one events and candidates had been handled equally and pretty throughout the election course of. Most seem to assist opposition social gathering claims of an total lack of equity.
Solely 31% agree that every one events and candidates had been handled equally and pretty.
Within the pre-election survey, nearly 2 in 3 respondents (65%) agreed or strongly agreed that INEC is clear and informs the general public and media about its actions. That share dropped to 34% after the election. A number of impartial observers, together with the European Union, have criticized the election for missing transparency.
The most important phase of respondents (39%) strongly disagree that INEC carried out its duties with honesty and integrity throughout the 2023 elections. Solely 9% strongly agree.
The delay in asserting a winner seems to have sapped public confidence in a free and truthful election. Most agree or strongly agree (70%) that the delay in asserting a winner negatively impacts my perceptions of election integrity.
Most additionally say they’ve little or no to no confidence (63%) in INEC’s vote tally and declaration of a winner.
63% have little or no or no confidence in INEC’s vote tally and declaration of a winner.
Witnessing Election Day Interference
Earlier than INEC previously declared Bola Tinubu the winner of the 2023 presidential election, opposition events referred to as for a rerun, alleging widespread vote rigging and violence. In our examine, we requested voters about any private expertise with these claims.
Total, greater than 1 in 3 respondents declare they or a pal personally witnessed incidences of vote-buying (37%), voter suppression (40%), poll tampering (36%), and violence close to polling stations (39%). Related percentages say they had been solely informed about these incidences taking place by the media. Smaller percentages say they didn’t see or hear about these incidences taking place in any respect.
Perceptions of Democracy
With disruption, delays, and irregularities weakening public notion of transparency and integrity within the electoral course of, it follows that almost all respondents say they’re “very dissatisfied” with the best way democracy works in Nigeria (52%).
52% are very dissatisfied with the best way democracy works in Nigeria.
Rising transparency all through the electoral course of will likely be essential for reinforcing public belief within the integrity of Nigeria’s democracy shifting ahead.
Interactive Knowledge Dashboard
Dive deeper into GeoPoll’s knowledge on the Nigeria elections utilizing the interactive dashboard beneath. The dashboard offers responses to every query within the survey, filterable by state, age group, and gender.
Conduct Democracy and Governance Analysis with GeoPoll
GeoPoll’s cell analysis and engagement platform enable governments and democracy teams to achieve residents in distant areas or battle zones shortly and safely, with out the necessity for on-the-ground enumerators. Utilizing GeoPoll, organizations can administer surveys and academic messages to extraordinarily particular goal populations, giving them the flexibility to shortly assess conditions and act upon essentially the most up-to-date data.
GeoPoll carried out this survey utilizing our proprietary SMS and cell internet analysis platforms. Knowledge assortment occurred from March 11-13, 2023. The multi-modal examine used a easy random sampling method from GeoPoll’s and third-party databases to realize a various mixture of 542 voting-age adults from throughout Nigeria.
For extra data on the pattern and methodology for this examine or to conduct a analysis examine of your individual, contact us as we speak.
High picture by Samuel Alabi on Unsplash
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