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Nicely right this moment as soon as once more we discovered ourselves in a bear pattern that then led to an especially gradual all day lengthy v backside… nevertheless, right this moment was a bit completely different. Why? Nicely this was fueled by a fed speaker…
https://preview.redd.it/0ye7pra9q93b1.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=273df126acc916fbfa953f9563a8d0ef1cfffc91
As you may see no stunning right here a fed speaker says one simply remotely bullish factor and the markets in fact run like loopy with it… So the fascinating factor is that over the past 2 weeks markets quietly whereas rallying have been supporting the percentages of a 25bps hike in June and no fee cuts by finish of yr…
As of this morning we had a 71% likelihood of a fee hike in June… now its right down to 29.8% likelihood…
https://preview.redd.it/r85r8cv9q93b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=416cd017be920b0122c8e3954f29fb428ec0eba1
DEBT CEILING VOTE
https://preview.redd.it/37vt9jeaq93b1.png?width=605&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc381eda729bb96f200228996b9b6cba3f8980af
Tonight at 830pm is supposedly the vote for the debt ceiling… Now my understanding is that solely a easy majority is required… and as of proper now solely 30 individuals say they are going to vote in opposition to it… so my maths says it would go… we lastly get to see if this can be a purchase the rumor promote the information occasion or not…
SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
https://preview.redd.it/2c8rkjyaq93b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee9a347949e50c5a17aace6c4263e8f1f443f89a
Formally we now have established 422.04 as a brand new provide… in doing so we now have taken our 419.5 and 418.78 provides…
Now if this performs out very like the previous few retraces we must always count on another day of promoting to kind a bullish reversal candle. If that performs out then 414.55 is our goal and the place we might possible bounce. If we loss 414.55 then our subsequent help is 410.2.
Nevertheless, if we rally off this debt information tonight 417.28 could possibly be the brand new demand after which we might begin to goal a transfer again to 422.04.
As of proper now the each day DMI and different indicators I comply with help a transfer decrease tomorrow and that this unload has at the very least another day to go.
SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION
https://preview.redd.it/5pho2dibq93b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d209421804807fbacf586ae50fe5179044e41960
The each day has a basic textbook carrot prime right here… we’re in a fairly spectacular blue bear channel that after that resistance breaks which sits at 416.2 for tomorrow I might count on the upside restoration… We additionally bounced off and held the each day 8ema at 416.84 right this moment. IF we are able to shut below the each day 8ema then I might begin to goal the each day 20ema which goes to be sitting proper close to 414.73.
With the black 4 day lengthy bull channel formally shedding help it’s time to count on a pullback very like we noticed from Could nineteenth to twenty fourth and Could 1st to 4th.
SPY Every day Ranges Provide- 422.04 -> 429.68 Demand- 414.55 -> 41.2 Assist- 417.3 -> 415.3 -> 414 -> 412.5 Resistance- 418.4 -> 420.2
FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
https://preview.redd.it/6n2o7y0cq93b1.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=305e844d4dab32aef50f265ec191b5b426653711
Similar setup right here on futures each day with a brand new provide being put in at 4240 taking out earlier provides at 4208 and 4216. With a each day DMI wave down supporting additional draw back together with a number of different technicals our goal right here must be 4156 demand and 4127 on a much bigger unload.
FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION
https://preview.redd.it/yhkek9fcq93b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=e52f92d36bad32d92737793e6db9519dbfc4cd1f
As I used to be suspecting we did repeat the topping sample that we now have seen on SPY/ ES at the very least 4 instances now… we got here down right this moment and broke help of the black bull channel and now have established a brand new blue bear channel. That resistance sits at 4195 for in a single day tonight and help is all the way in which down at 4150.
The largest factor to notice right here is that we nonetheless held the each day 8ema help at 4185. If we lose and most significantly shut below that 8ema our subsequent main goal is the each day 20ema at 4167 space. Now we have curiously additionally bounced off the each day 50ema fairly a number of instances on promote offs (3 instances of the final drops to be particular) which implies we even have draw back as little as 4135-4140.
Futures Every day Ranges Provide- 4240 Demand- 4157 -> 4127 Assist- 4188 -> 4157 -> 4127 Resistance- 4213 -> 4240
QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Very related motion on QQQ right here and really performed out almost completely to the 347.11 degree I used to be on the lookout for after rejecting yesterday. With that rejection yesterday we fashioned a brand new provide at 352.8. In doing that we now have now taken out 347.11 provide… there’s a decrease provide at 337.6 with a requirement proper under it at 336.37 that I’m focusing on really.
If we do see a continuation to the draw back which the each day DMI additionally helps then so long as that DMI is waving down and QQQ is dropping totally will likely be on the lookout for this 336-337 space which possible will likely be excessive help and trigger an enormous bounce.
https://preview.redd.it/5cnzcuwcq93b1.png?width=940&format=png&auto=webp&s=909e829e21ef4f35b359c357da7f3d060e13da55
QQQ Every day Ranges Provide- 337.6 -> 352.8 -> 357.09 Demand- 336.37 -> 331.35
VIX
https://preview.redd.it/o7meidedq93b1.png?width=737&format=png&auto=webp&s=75ddfc4855a3865e27e338ee2c0139b231f8fe01
Tons of motion right this moment on the VIX… so initially it appeared just like the doji reversal bounce off 16.92 was going to play out completely and depart us with a bloody SPY day and large inexperienced VIX day… nevertheless, with that intraday restoration the VIX really took a extremely giant unload earlier than lastly bouncing as soon as once more EOD.
The VIX formally broke by that white bear channel (this might be much like the bull channels SPY/QQQ/ ES have been in)… in doing this with the breaking of bulls on spy/qqq/es then I do forsee additional draw back on the markets… I might search for with a this candle physique breaking over 17.97 and a closure again over the 8/20ema I might be on the lookout for a breakout tomorrow to the 18.86 space on the VIX.
Nevertheless, if the markets obtain the debt ceiling vote nicely… then if 17.97 continues as resistance our subsequent help and goal is 16.92…
DAILY TRADING LOG
https://preview.redd.it/nyz66ctdq93b1.png?width=475&format=png&auto=webp&s=5738f68068f7fb5329afb751cbf55b47a027fbc1
Actually todays one other a type of days the place I really completed fairly stable inexperienced however truthfully with these losses noon through the v backside restoration it simply didn’t really feel like a win mentally…
That v backside restoration (Actually it was an enormous cup and deal with) was extremely irritating as I might say 75-85% of the way in which up it was overbought and really a majority of the way in which down it confirmed excellent put entries on a 1min and 5min timeframe… as you may see I bit the bullet quite a few instances on that. What was actually odd is that not like normal (A minimum of for me) the decision entries really introduced themselves as pretend breakdowns and bear traps…
What I imply by that is that usually I look forward to affirmation earlier than I enter on each 1/ 5min worth motion but additionally on indicators… I might see all of the affirmation to take a put (almost excellent) and it could then begin to unload prefer it was the right play nevertheless, it could nearly instantly bounce to cease you out. The opposite arduous half was nearly each single new 15min candle would get rejected so aggressively and arduous that you’d count on markets lastly discovered a prime… nevertheless, that was the dip shopping for alternative in disguise.
General been a terrific week to date however right this moment was positively irritating.
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