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We’re formally within the huge pre market transfer adopted by intraday vary/ chop pattern… in all probability some of the irritating instances to be a day dealer as until you swing (and are right) we’re left with the crumbs… Have a look at the huge pre markets we have now had over the past 7 buying and selling days…
https://preview.redd.it/oai1craotska1.png?width=348&format=png&auto=webp&s=20521964dfe5bd613e8938cac13bb0dfd1a374e1
Common open over the past 7 buying and selling days is +/- 0.83%. That’s fairly dang spectacular..
Immediately was in all probability one in all my favor intraday SPY patterns… the traditional 123 rollercoaster.. I’ve talked about this quite a few instances however primarily a 123 rollercoaster is 1) the preliminary transfer on this case the dump from 401.29 to 398.26… 2) the restoration on this case that’s the pump from 398.26 to 399.51 after which lastly 3) the ultimate greater push previous preliminary low… on this case that’s the EOD push to 397.2 space. Its really actually refreshing to see this sample play out at this time as that is how SPY used to behave and customarily behaves in a wholesome market… these huge V bottoms and Large LOD to HOD reversals are NOT the traditional despite the fact that 2022 needs us to imagine they’re. That is wholesome and refreshing to see particularly on a bear pattern day…
https://preview.redd.it/se519rtotska1.png?width=928&format=png&auto=webp&s=98be46fceb76001e6f2cfa5f8487ab36426ddfee
So the query is the place does this depart us?
https://preview.redd.it/f1udmp7ptska1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=1a4d3bf248084273e35ba9ce87090259490fd6d5
Regardless of the gorgeous spectacular 0.9% inexperienced open and the push over 401 this morning the bears have been capable of capitalize as soon as once more. This actually jogs my memory of the final 2 months however in reverse… what number of instances did we see main morning dumps and purple pre markets just for the bulls by EOD to take it inexperienced or a minimum of recuperate a lot of the loss? We’re seeing the identical factor right here… and actually at this time is a VERY bearish candle closure…
Having a look on the every day right here we had a earlier demand stage at 400.6 that we got here up and tried to shut over at this time and arduous rejected. Usually talking when we have now a requirement stage like that and we get an enormous rejection it is rather bearish for the long run. Not solely that however we kissed the every day 8ema resistance at this time and arduous rejected it with the wick and we arduous rejected the every day 200/50ema with the candle physique.
Probably the most bullish factor that we will take away from at this time is that we bounced off the every day 100ema help as soon as once more. Nonetheless, with the demand stage rejection, and every day 8/50/200ema rejection I’m going to be in search of a much bigger unload right here on SPY this week. My goal stays 390.1, nevertheless, we do have a earlier demand stage at 388.66 that we might bounce off. IF we get right here and may bounce I’ll completely be in search of a play again to 405.8 demand.
Present demand ranges= 388.66 and 405.81.
Key SPY Assist- 397.7 -> 396.4 -> 395.4 -> 393.6 -> 391.5
Key SPY Resistance- 400 -> 401.7 -> 403.2
https://preview.redd.it/c88rpbtptska1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=dfbcfa0dab35be6d408ba326056456cc67b55f76
The futures candle with this hanging man candle with a good looking every day 8, 50 and 200ema rejection screams draw back to me. Nonetheless, there IS a double backside right here off 3975. Bears want to interrupt via that stage tomorrow and extra importantly shut underneath that stage.
I’m concentrating on 3920 help bounce on futures. If we’re capable of get there then I’ll 100% be in search of a bounce again to the 4000s.
Key Futures Assist- 3975 -> 3965 -> 3945 -> 3920
Key Futures Resistance- 4000 -> 4020 -> 4032 -> 4055
https://preview.redd.it/vwr94g9qtska1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=1cedc4e05f35be7a3639082aa905d8f0ca83bc53
So Tesla investor day is on Wednesday apparently at 4pm… I considered it over the weekend and thought some lotto requires investor day to let trip can be a terrific play and nicely that seems to be completely right. Nonetheless that ship has far sailed… a day too late for certain…
Having a look at tesla right here we had that actually good hammer candle doji that additionally re-established 196.3 as demand on Friday. That led to a reasonably huge bounce and yet one more hole to the upside. We additionally haven’t any held the every day 8ema as help and have closed over the 202.1 resistance it fought in any respect week.
Our subsequent demand stage is 211.5 and that’s the place I will probably be keeping track of for this week and tomorrow. There’s a very actual purchase the rumor promote the information potential with Tesla this week.
Demand levels- 196.3 and 211.5
Key Tesla Assist- 205.1 -> 202.1 -> 197.8 -> 196.3
Key Tesla Resistance- 207.9 -> 211.6 -> 214.2
https://preview.redd.it/c1hc78xqtska1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e4ef4106efabb59f8faf02f0721d8c695852b7b
The VIX was just about everywhere at this time. Regardless of the VIX just about dropping from opening this morning it did have a bounce off the every day 8ema which on the identical time supplied a draw back alternative for SPY. The one fascinating take right here is that SPY did NOT recuperate regardless of the VIX persevering with its unload. Watching the VIX proceed to unwind whereas SPY falls is one thing essential to pay attention to.
Every day log-
https://preview.redd.it/b5a36f9rtska1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a1c658dd79206a96f6f11e03ac9776fe4ba7ae5
Began the week off actually properly at this time. I’m fairly proud of the day total and I’m even okay with the 2 losses I took. The primary loss was on a possible breakout that ended up with an enormous 50cent plus blip down that after all nobody might have anticipated. The second loss I ended up chopping my put early once we broke via a key resistance. It might have ended up coming again to be extraordinarily worthwhile, nevertheless, whereas I didn’t watch it the entire time I imagine my -10% cease would have hit first.
I did transfer as much as a -10% cease this week formally and went dwell with that. To this point so good clearly. It’s positively nicer realizing 2 good wins breaks me even as a substitute of three good wins. Nonetheless, will proceed to judge as time goes on. To this point so good and optimistic outcomes there.
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