Dividend Kings In Focus: Northwest Natural Gas

Up to date on October 1st, 2023 by Felix Martinez

Utility shares are sometimes related to lengthy histories of paying dividends to shareholders. Their comparatively predictable earnings and recession resistance mix to make rising dividends considerably simpler over the long run than a extremely cyclical enterprise.

Nevertheless, not all utility shares are created equal on this sense.

There are six utility shares on the distinguished checklist of Dividend Kings, a bunch of shares with at the least 50 consecutive years of dividend will increase. You’ll be able to see all 50 Dividend Kings right here.

You too can obtain an Excel spreadsheet with the complete checklist of Dividend Kings (plus vital metrics similar to price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields) by clicking on the hyperlink beneath:

Northwest Pure Holdings (NWN) is among the many six utility shares on the checklist of Dividend Kings. It has elevated its dividend for 67 consecutive years, giving it one of many longest streaks out there.

Beneath, we’ll assess Northwest’s enterprise, development prospects, and whether or not to purchase, promote, or maintain.

Enterprise Overview

Northwest was based over 160 years in the past as a pure fuel utility in Portland, Oregon.

It has grown from a really small, native utility that offered fuel service to a handful of consumers to a really profitable regional utility with pursuits that now embrace water and wastewater, which had been bought in latest acquisitions.

The corporate’s areas served are proven within the picture beneath.

Supply: Investor Presentation

Northwest supplies fuel service to 2.5 million clients in ~140 communities in Oregon and Washington, serving greater than 795,000 connections. It additionally owns and operates ~35 billion cubic toes of underground fuel storage capability.

Lastly, its pretty latest transfer into water has grown to over 33,000 connections, serving greater than 80,000 folks. As soon as the corporate’s pending acquisitions shut, the corporate’s water connections will develop to 60,000 connections, able to serve roughly 145,000 folks.

Northwest reported Q2 outcomes on Aug. third, 2023. Income grew by 22% yr–over–yr to about $238 million. Nevertheless, Net earnings was down $0.03 per share in comparison with $0.05 within the prior-year interval. The firm additionally reported including 6,400  pure gas meters over the previous 12 months, equating to a 0.8% development price.

Within the first six months of 2023, Northwest additionally invested almost $151 million of their utility programs for better reliability and resiliency.

In the meantime, the management staff reaffirmed its steering for 2023, with earnings–per–share anticipated to return in at between $2.55 and $2.75.

Subsequent, we’ll assess Northwest’s future development prospects.

Development Prospects

Northwest has had problem rising earnings-per-share prior to now decade, regardless that the corporate acquired clients pretty steadily throughout that point.

The corporate has struggled with price instances in a few of its localities, though it skilled newer success in Oregon with elevating costs. Since Northwest is a regulated utility, it should ask for pricing will increase from native authorities.

Northwest’s buyer development has been fairly sturdy over the previous decade. It has a mix of conversions and new building, each of which have helped transfer the needle over time by low single digits.

We consider the demographics of Northwest’s served communities assist continued buyer development, so this must be a tailwind for income and earnings.

Beneath, Northwest has outlined what it sees as development targets for the subsequent 5 years.

Supply: Investor Presentation

The corporate believes it will probably develop earnings-per-share at 4% to six% yearly whereas rising its dividend.

It plans to get there by rising its buyer rely by at the least 1.5% yearly, according to historic efficiency, and price base development of 5% to 7%.

We consider buyer development might be regular, however Northwest’s historical past on price instances has us a bit extra cautious on price development.

Accordingly, we assess Northwest’s long-term development potential at 1.9% yearly within the coming years.

Aggressive Benefits & Recession Efficiency

Northwest’s aggressive benefit is very like every other utility; it has a digital monopoly in its service space. The utility enterprise mannequin is vastly completely different from nearly every other sort of enterprise because it requires regulatory approval for issues like CAPEX and pricing will increase.

In return, the corporate generates a extremely predictable and constant stream of income from yr to yr, even throughout recessions. Roughly 88% of the corporate’s internet earnings final yr was derived from the pure fuel utility enterprise.

Moreover, virtually two-thirds of Northwest’s clients are residential. We consider Northwest’s pretty heavy focus on residential clients will proceed to serve it effectively throughout future recessions.

Beneath, we’ve Northwest’s earning-per-share earlier than, throughout, and after the Nice Recession:

2007 earnings-per-share: $1.44
2008 earnings-per-share: $1.52 (5.6% improve)
2009 earnings-per-share: $1.60 (5.3% lower)
2010 earnings-per-share: $1.68 (5.0% improve)

Northwest was in a position to not solely preserve its earnings throughout a deep and lengthy recession, however it produced at the least 5% earnings-per-share development annually earlier than, throughout, and following the Nice Recession.

Whereas utilities can afford to distribute a excessive degree of income within the type of dividends, given their predictable earnings base, traders ought to be aware that will increase are more likely to be small. The latest improve was simply 0.5%, illustrating this level.

We consider the present dividend is secure for the foreseeable future, however we be aware that dividend development will doubtless be tough to realize.

Valuation & Anticipated Returns

Northwest inventory has declined considerably from its 52-week excessive, bringing the inventory again to an interesting valuation and dividend yield.

At immediately’s value, Northwest trades for 14.3 occasions this yr’s earnings, which is beneath our truthful worth estimate of 17 occasions earnings. We, due to this fact, anticipate a 2.2% annual enhance to complete returns from the rising P/E a number of.

The present dividend yield is 5.1%, which may be very excessive by Northwest’s personal historic requirements. Combining it with the valuation and anticipated EPS development, we forecast complete annual returns of 13.6% transferring ahead.

A mid-to-high single-digit complete return potential earns Northwest a purchase ranking.

Ultimate Ideas

Whereas Northwest has some challenges to face, we consider its strategic course of specializing in constructing out its residential enterprise will result in optimistic development. Regular buyer development is enticing and may assist at the least buoy earnings at present ranges, if not produce a small quantity of EPS development annually.

With the share value decline prior to now yr, Northwest presents an improved worth proposition. With complete returns projected to roughly 13.6% yearly, Northwest could be confirmed a fruitful funding for conservative income-oriented traders.

The next articles comprise shares with very lengthy dividend or company histories, ripe for choice for dividend development traders:

The Excessive Yield Dividend Kings Checklist is comprised of the 20 Dividend Kings with the very best present yields.
The Blue Chip Shares Checklist: shares that qualify as Dividend Achievers, Dividend Aristocrats, and/or Dividend Kings
The Excessive Dividend Shares Checklist: shares that enchantment to traders within the highest yields of 5% or extra.
The Month-to-month Dividend Shares Checklist: shares that pay dividends each month, for 12 dividend funds per yr.
The Dividend Champions Checklist: shares which have elevated their dividends for 25+ consecutive years.Word: Not all Dividend Champions are Dividend Aristocrats as a result of Dividend Aristocrats have further necessities like being in The S&P 500.