On Saturday 25 February 2023, voters in Nigeria will head to the polls to elect their subsequent president. Amid rising discontent as a consequence of financial hardship and mounting insecurity, residents in Africa’s most populous nation and largest financial system will forged their ballots hoping for a brand new period.

To evaluate public notion within the days main as much as the election, GeoPoll performed a survey utilizing its proprietary SMS and cellular net analysis platforms. The multi-modal examine used a easy random sampling approach from GeoPoll’s and third-party databases to realize a various pattern of 434 voting-age adults from throughout Nigeria.

Given the comparatively small pattern dimension, this examine will not be supposed to foretell the outcomes of the election in any means, however reasonably to offer a directional snapshot of public sentiment because the election approaches.

Findings from the examine are detailed on this put up. To view the total outcomes, filterable by query, state, gender, and age group, scroll right down to the Interactive Information Dashboard.

Public Notion and Outlook

With Nigeria going through quite a few challenges, together with a rising price of residing, report unemployment, and widespread poverty and insecurity, if follows that just about half of respondents imagine Nigeria goes within the “improper course.”

Greater than 2 out of three respondents (67%) aged 36 and older imagine the nation goes within the improper course.

The perceived trajectory of the nation has most feeling “annoyed” with the present scenario (58%). This holds true throughout gender and age teams.

Though frustration is the main public sentiment proper now, “hopeful” is second at 38%, illustrating an at the least considerably constructive outlook. Additional, when requested immediately about the way forward for Nigeria, 69% of respondents say they assume it would get “higher” in comparison with solely 12% that imagine it would worsen.

To ensure that Nigeria to maneuver ahead, nevertheless, respondents say the nation should first take care of widespread “corruption.”

Greater than 1 in 4 respondents view “safety” as the most important problem to peace and stability in Nigeria (28%).

Entry to Election Information and Info

Nigerians are paying shut consideration as they put together to vote in what has grow to be a extremely contentious election. In our examine, virtually all respondents say they’re following details about the election at the least every day (89%).

89% say they’re following details about the election at the least every day

Some really feel unhappy with the data they’re getting, nevertheless. Solely 62% say they’re able to entry all of the true and correct details about the election that they want.

Disinformation is clearly a priority. Greater than 9 out of 10 respondents (94%) suspect at the least “a bit of” of the data they’ve seen or heard in regards to the election to be false or inaccurate.

In January 2023, a BBC investigation concluded that political events and supporters in Nigeria have been illegally paying social media influencers to unfold disinformation about their opponents within the upcoming election. Latest studies in The Guardian additionally uncovered disinformation ways used to control the ends in Nigeria’s 2015 election.

Voting Intentions

Public curiosity and engagement within the upcoming election is illustrated in the truth that 86% of respondents say they’ve registered to vote.

86% say they’ve a Everlasting Voter’s Card (PVC)

Voter turnout in Nigeria has been on a gradual decline over the previous 20 years. The political events and candidates have been working exhausting throughout this election cycle to reverse these tendencies, however issues about turnout stay. Regardless of the 86% of respondents that say they’ve registered to vote and the 65% that declare they’re “very doubtless” to vote, the share of individuals that truly present up on election day to forged their poll will doubtless fall far under these lofty claims.

Probability to vote will increase with age. These saying they’re “very doubtless” to vote ranges from 59% for respondents aged 18-25 to 70% for respondents aged 36 and older. The imply scores vary from 3.99 to 4.23 on a 5-point scale.

No matter age group, the most important phase of respondents (71%) says their selection for President will probably be based mostly on “competence.” “Belief” and a “clear manifesto” are additionally necessary concerns for many.

Belief within the Electoral Course of

Belief within the electoral course of is crucial for lowering voter apathy and growing turnout. Following credible studies in earlier elections of poll stuffing and paying for votes, the Unbiased Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC) says it has carried out applied sciences and different measures to assist make sure that this election is free from fraud and corruption.

To evaluate voting-age Nigerians’ perceptions of the electoral course of within the week main as much as the election, we offered them a sequence of statements associated to the method and requested whether or not they agree or disagree with every assertion.

Greater than half of respondents (52%) imagine within the electoral course of sufficient to agree or strongly agree that the outcomes of the 2023 elections will probably be accepted by all Nigerians. Solely 5% strongly disagree.

Nearly half (49%) agree or strongly agree that the elections will probably be freed from fraud. That share drops to 40% for respondents aged 18-25. Males specific extra belief in a fraud-free election than girls (51% to 43%).

Though virtually 2 in 3 respondents agree or strongly agree that INEC is clear and informs the general public and media about its actions (65%), considerably much less imagine INEC is an impartial establishment and never will not be influenced by political concerns (50%).

With studies of INEC workplaces being attacked within the months main as much as the election, solely 43% of respondents agree or strongly agree that the elections will probably be freed from violence and intimidation.

General, greater than 2 in 3 respondents (67%) specific at the least “a good quantity” of confidence within the capability of INEC to arrange credible elections.

Interactive Information Dashboard

Dive deeper into GeoPoll’s knowledge on the Nigeria elections utilizing the interactive dashboard under. The dashboard supplies responses to every query within the survey, filterable by state, age group, and gender.

Conduct Multi-modal Analysis with GeoPoll

GeoPoll is a full-service market and social analysis company that conducts surveys by way of computer-assisted phone interviewing (CATI), computer-assisted private interviewing (CAPI), quick message service (SMS), WhatsApp, and cellular net/cellular software communications. We additionally conduct on-line and offline qualitative analysis.

This examine was carried out by GeoPoll utilizing our personal cellular analysis platform. The questionnaire was designed by GeoPoll researchers and performed by way of SMS and cellular net expertise. Information assortment occurred from February 14-18, 2023. The varied pattern features a gender composition of 33% females and 67% males, an age breakdown of twenty-two% aged 18-25, 45% aged 26-35, and 33% aged 36 and over, and illustration from each state (ADM1) in Nigeria.

For extra data on the pattern and methodology for this examine or to conduct a analysis examine of your personal utilizing our multi-modal analysis platform, contact us at this time.