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Two weeks in the past, see , we discovered for the utilizing the Elliott Wave Precept (EWP) that primarily based on a regular Fibonacci-based impulse sample, the index was most probably engaged on a five-wave transfer decrease to ideally $14435-14500 so long as it stayed beneath $15600.
To this point, so good, because the index bottomed out final week at $14432 and has staged a rally since into at present’s excessive. The query is: has the index bottomed, and is a rally to $16100+ underway? The solutions we search lie, as all the time, within the value chart. See Determine 1 beneath.
Determine 1. NASDAQ 100 day by day decision chart with technical indicators and detailed EWP depend.
As you possibly can see, quite a bit can occur in two weeks, and it pays to remain knowledgeable extra often than as soon as each different week as a result of the index offered us with an prolonged gray W-iii. What does that imply? Sometimes, a third wave seeks out the 1.382-1.681x extension of the first wave, measured from the 2nd wave low; gray W-i and -ii on this case. That might have focused $14600-700. Nevertheless, the markets don’t owe us something; we obtained a ~2.236x W-1 extension on the $14432 low. There isn’t a alarm as a result of wave extensions can all the time occur however can’t be identified beforehand. The notorious “identified unknown” [D. Rumsfeld].
The inexperienced (arrows) W-c = W-a extension targets $14238, and the gray W-v goal zone is now $14245-485. Thus, now we have even higher Fib-confluence at
“The low $14Ks” we forecasted a month in the past could be reached on “a break beneath the inexperienced W-1 excessive at $15277”
See .
Within the meantime, the index ought to have accomplished the gray W-iv and ideally be at first of the gray W-v. A break beneath final week’s low will affirm gray W-v. Nevertheless, if the index breaks out above at present’s excessive, then gray W-iv is changing into aberrant, and we must always anticipate the index to achieve the excessive $14000s to low $15000s earlier than the countdown for W-v begins over. For now, our most popular path, as postulated two weeks in the past, is:
“The completion of the crimson W-iv as an expanded flat, with inexperienced W-c underway. As acknowledged, C-waves in a flat comprise 5 waves. Thus, gray W-iii, iv, and v of W-c of W-iv ought to begin quickly” has crammed in properly and solely gray W-v is most probably left.
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