SP500 Futures Trading Plan for 11/3/23

I share my plan for dialogue or training and it isn’t meant to be used as commerce suggestions or concepts.

Recap: There was a big hole up on the open right this moment as market members continued to react to yesterday’s FOMC occasion together with the jobless claims out right this moment within the premarket. As such, I deployed my typical hole technique which seeks to both go towards the route through which the hole opened or to hop on board the pattern. The market consolidated throughout the first 45 minutes after open, however within the absence of any actual promoting stress and with worth acceptance across the previous stability zone low at 4300, I went lengthy. I started to take earnings first at 4314 (the subsequent resistance degree), extra at 4320, and let the rest of the commerce shut out with a trailing cease that was taken on a pullback round 11:15am EST. I usually would maintain out to the subsequent degree (as a substitute of take out at 4320), however there was such a big transfer in a single day and within the morning that I felt like I wanted to take some threat off the desk.

Steadiness/Development: The market prolonged one time framing as much as a fourth day on what has been a powerful reversal following a deep pullback by way of the second half of October. The market has now moved up over 200 factors since Friday’s lows and, notably, is inside placing distance of recovering the yellow 12-month pattern up at 4375-81 that we misplaced two weeks in the past. At this level, bulls management the market so long as it trades above the long-term trendline up from the Covid lows with help shifting to 4236.

Evaluation: The market is again in acquainted territory at 4336, a degree which has been prevalent in my plans for some time now. It was first help in February of 2022, then resistance the remainder of that 12 months and the primary half of 2023, then the market broke out from there in June to set this 12 months’s highs earlier than promoting off once more, pivoted round that degree for a couple of month, broke decrease, and now has returned once more. Buying and selling above this degree, which is kind of confluent with the 200 day shifting common, helps the bull case and any failure there may be more likely to result in a interval of consolidation after this massive volatility of the final couple weeks. There was no actual interval of consolidation because the market put on this sturdy reversal from Friday and the percentages begin to rise that there’s a cooling off interval put up FOMC, particularly contemplating the sunshine week for information subsequent week.

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